Who says what?!

Impacts of the Japanese tsunami on ocean life (John Bruno)

As terrible as the impacts of the Japanese tsunami have been, one issue barely being covered by the media is the potentially massive effects on ocean life and ecosystems.

I can’t say too much as a scientist simply because there is no data on what is happening; nobody is measuring sediment input, toxin levels in seawater, etc. But I can cautiously speculate about some of the local and regional effects over the short and long term.

Observing the tsunami waves coming ashore, you saw that the water was already brown, likely due to the scouring effect of the waves. Within minutes, most of the seawater that destroyed coastal communities returned to the ocean, bringing untold tons of stuff with it; all the remnants of humanity including pieces of buildings, cars, trees, garbage, huge amounts of plastics, eroded soils and likely a wide variety of pollutants from those soils, homes, factories, stores, etc.

The sediment input alone could devastate coastal habitats such as seagrass beds and oyster reefs that were not directly destroyed by the force of the tsunami waves. Filter feeding bivalves like oysters are not tolerant of highly sediment loads in the water. And seagrasses are especially sensitive to sediment since they need light for photosynthesis (suspended sediments make the water less clear, reducing light penetrance).

Ecologists refer to organisms like seagrasses and oysters as “foundation species” since they create the habitat that countless other creatures inhabit. Thus loosing them means loosing the habitats, the fish that inhabit them, etc., with obvious effects on fishing. More directly, oyster fisheries are huge in Japan and the oyster farms must have been wiped out in many areas. The systems and organisms will certainly recover eventually, but it could take decades.

Moving beyond the direct physical damage and sedimentation I expect the chemical pollutants washed out to sea could have some effects, at least locally on some organisms. This will take years to evaluate.

Another clear threat is leakage from the Fukushima nuclear power plant. High radiation levels have been reported, although little information is being collected (or released) about the radioactivity concentrations offshore off the plant, however, terrestrial maps  suggest growing radiation levels tens of kilometers from Fukushima. Wind patterns could influence the spread of high radiation levels but a direct leak into the sea, and so the marine intertidal zone, from the plant would obviously be far more affected by local and regional current patterns.

Nikolai Maximenko and Jan Hafner at the International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa have projected the long term path of much of the ocean debris washed away by the retreating tsunami waves. Dr. Maximenko is well known for his work on predicting the locations of the major ocean garbage patches, places where debris accumulate and remain for decades.  (read more about their study here)

So.. 

there will be a huge impact on the marine intertidal zone. 

• First of all, different species (especcialy fishes) shifted thei habitat and moved to the intertidal zone. Now claims, crabs, .. have more predators.
• Other species such as barnacles might not have huge impact, but their habitat had radically changed and would move again to "normality" not in less than 3 year.
• Organism such as diatoms and plankton didn't have a strong repercussion

WE WILL THEREFORE WAIT AND SEE WHAT WOULD HAPPEN! 

Sources (some of them)

• http://www.greenpeoplenews.com/en/2011/03/22/impact-of-the-japan-earthquake-and-tsunami-on-animals-and-environment/
• http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article_pf.asp?ID=2448
• http://www.springerlink.com/content/md1v0utx5665dyrl/
• http://spie.org/x648.html?product_id=837285
• http://scholar.google.ca/scholar?q=fish+that+die+in+acidic+water&hl=en&as_sdt=1%2C5&as_sdtp=on

Better News!

Amidst all this bad news, sad news, devastating news, there is some glimpse of hope. Not all that the earthquake does is devastating. In fact, I think that there is a reason perhaps that our earth does the things it does. Maybe that it is just that we have not been able to efficiently work around the schedule of the earth in terms of where we settle and how we live that we are so negatively impacted by earthquakes and tsunamis and therefore consider them so devastating. In fact, for the shallow water fish, this is good news. The abundance of dead and decaying material produces a massive growth in the plankton population. Hence, all the fish that feed on plankton suddenly experienced a huge growth in their population, an example being sardines. In addition, due to the wave action and the obvious fear of the effects of the earthquake and tsunami and the possibility of another occurrence of such a thing, there was a significant decrease in the amount of motor boats present on the water. This caused an increase in fish populations as well as populations of dolphins.  

Intertidal Marine Reforestation

On the topic of the effect of the earthquake and tsunami on the intertidal marine organisms and therefore the intertidal marine ecosystem, there is the question of how to help rebuild these communities once and earthquake and/or tsunami has occurred. One concept around this idea is the concept of “Reforestation of Marine Ecosystems”. This theory takes the notion that when an earthquake occurs, with the impact of the water and plate movement, there will be soil erosion. This means that the coastlines will recede and come inwards. Therefore, the terrestrial organisms that used to be on this area of land will die due to the fact that they cannot live in water. Whatever intertidal organisms that are left will migrate upwards to the new intertidal zone, as will the other organisms of the other depths of the water. Once they have migrated, they will repopulate. Few of the previous terrestrial organisms may stay at the edge of the intertidal zone and adapt themselves to survive in periods of submergence in water.  

Change in pH of water

Through the past, we can predict a change in the pH levels of the coastline water surrounding Japan. Sea water is in general basic, meaning that it has a pH level greater than seven (7), seven (7) being neutral. This change in pH levels could be due to many factors including soil erosion and dead material (plants, fish, etc). For example, if we are to take the case study of Wenchuan earthquake of May 12, 2008 in China. Although it was not located exactly on a coastline, it heavily impacted the bodies of water in that area due to soil erosion. The soil erosion was so severe that it increased the area by 279.2 km², 1.9% of the total statistical area of land. More than 3.9 km² of the lakes and streams were blocked by debris. The increase of soil erosion causes water to decrease its pH level and become more acidic. Acidic water can cause the death of salmon in between 12 and 27 hours, and the death of trout in 30 to 48 hours. Acidic water can also cause the death of embryos during the birth process of certain fish. This loss of the replenishing of new fish can be extremely detrimental to the redevelopment of the marine ecosystem in general after an earthquake. Acidity can also cause acute mortality, reduced growth, skeletal deformation, and reproductive abnormalities.

Beyond the Tsunami: India vs Japan

Beyond the Tsunami

Is a research conducted by United Nations India, United Nations Development Programme and Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment in 2008, by the researchers: Anjana Mohan, Terenia Berlie, Naveen Namboothri and Kartik Shanker.

By evaluating the Macro and Mega Faunal Communities of Intertidal Ecosystems on the Tamil Nadu  Coast, India, in three years they reached to a conclusion.

This is to show how our topic is wide: even if it could look like very narrow in a first moment. The aspect we focus on is principally based on prediction and if we observe Japan’s marine intertidal organism, in a estimated time of three years we will be able to notice how the intertidal zone varied drastically.

This source is a sample of our project from a wide point of view and might help us to reach to our conclusions.

So..what did these guys observed..that we haven’t observed yet?!

(I can't post it - editing problems :(, but I have the file in my laptop!) Really really interesting!
http://www.dakshin.org/DOWNLOADS/ECOLOGY%20REPORT.pdf page 27 and 28

More information: Other species affected

They say that animals can sense that a storm is coming. They run for the hills. They fly away. Still, the massive March 11 Japan earthquake and tsunami seems to have done its fair share of damage to wildlife, too. While the human victims in Japan are foremost on our minds these days, animals affected by the earthquake and ensuing tsunami also are an issue. Many animals are dead. Many others need help.

Some sea animals close to shore can be washed up on shore and killed. land animals can be drowned, crushed, or sucked into the ocean. Animals far out enough are usually not affected in the least.

M. Sanjayan of The Nature Conservancy in Arlington, Virginia, told ScienceInsider that the biggest impact on wildlife would be on shorebirds nesting on small islands throughout the Pacific, rather than on the Japanese mainland. Indeed, the majority of wildlife-related news of the tsunami has come from small Pacific islands such as those in the Midway Atoll National Wildlife Refuge.

While some of the reports are heartening, and many are devasting, more in-depth research into the short- and long-term effects of the tsunami on marine and coastal ecosystems will take much longer. But the 2004 magnitude 9.15 earthquake off the coast of Sumatra, and the resulting tsunami that rippled across the Indian Ocean have been extensively studied, and allow us to speculate regarding possible outcomes of the Japanese earthquake and tsunami.

The Wildlife Trust of India, along with the International Fund for Animal Welfare initiated several investigations following the earthquake and tsunami to assess their impact on wildlife. Overall, they found that damage to wildlife populations was generally limited on the mainland, and slightly worse on the islands. Particularly hard-hit, however, were coral reef systems. Several beaches were washed away, and freshwater habitats were inundated with saltwater. While most of these ecosystems were eventually able to rebound, problems did occur.

For example, one mainland wildlife sanctuary became flooded with saltwater and covered with sand, making is impossible for the various plant-eating ungulates (hoofed animals) to graze. Even worse, with seawater comes toxic pollution.

And there were probably other invaders, as well. Furry ones. Large dead trees from distant islands were found washed up on mainland beaches. While there was no danger to beach ecosystems from the trees themselves, since they were dead, they may have carried some critters with them that would eventually colonize mainland coasts. It is well-known that rodents, reptiles, and insects are quite capable of setting up camp in new environments after rafting across the sea.

As we can already tell from the Japan earthquake, birds are particularly vulnerable to tsunamis. But in the 2004 tsunami, it wasn’t all bad news for the birds! In fact, after the seawater receded, it left quite a bit of silt and sediment behind. Some of that sediment settled into pre-existing lagoons and creeks, making them much shallower. 

obstacles :(

As we have realized through our research investigation, the effects of earthquakes on the marine ecosystem in general, is, in relation to the terrestrial system, much less researched. We investigated why these reasons might be as it became very frustrating to try and find information and data that we could not access for whatever reason. A few of the reasons that we found were the following:

1.     Marine ecosystems are open systems and hence it is very difficult to model them.

2.     There are few, in relation to those of terrestrial ecosystems, regular long-term data gathering strategies relating to marine ecosystems and the impact on them due to earthquakes. This could be in part due to the fact that many bodies of water (including fresh and salty) are not located at seismically active areas.

3.     Since marine systems are influenced by many factors on a daily basis, including small, undetectable, natural earthquakes, it is hard to distinguish between the influences of each of these factors.

 4. There are few “earthquake to ecosystem” models and therefore it is difficult to estimate the vastness of the impact of the earthquakes.

Taken from source: 

http://resources.metapress.com/pdf-preview.axd?code=md1v0utx5665dyrl&size=largest

Gugu says ...

THE EFFECT OF EARTHQUAKE/TSUNAMI IN THE MARINE INTERTIDAL ORGANISM.

Impact of Tsunami on Marine Ecosystem

General impacts by tsunami:

There is likely damage to the structure and function of the coastal ecosystems(coral reefs, mangroves, sea grasses, estuarine mudflats):

The Physical structure has been damaged by the force of the wave itself, physical removal of flora and fauna and increased sediment load which would have killed sediment sensitive corals and sea grasses by smothering. The extent of this damage is being assessed and would vary considerably depending on the local topography and hydrology.

Chemical changes have included saltwater intrusion, eutrophication (enrichment) of the water resulting from increased runoff, raw sewage and decomposition of flora and fauna including unrecovered bodies. There will be the slower decomposition of timber from mangroves, fishing boats and buildings.

Non biodegradable waste such as plastics has contributed to a build up in marine debris.

Exotic (introduced) species used for aquaculture have escaped.

Finally, the biological stricture of the ecosystem could be disrupted as various species at different trophic levels were differently removed. With the structure altered, ecosystem functions could be altered.

Tropical Ecosystems

Coral reefs have been thought of as “nature defense” and there is an early suggestion that the ecosystems in such areas were largely intact. For e.g., the Surin Island, chain off Thailand’s west coast, may have survived better than areas where the coast has been modified by urban development, aquaculture and tourism. Keeping the reefs intact around the Maldives is credited with reducing the loss of life.

Mangroves are an important natural barrier as well as a profitable timber resource. Areas in Pichavaram and Muthupet, in the state of Tamil Nadu, India with dense mangroves suffered fewer human casualties and less damage to property compared to areas without mangroves. On Penang Island, the worst affected area in Malaysia, representatives of the Penang Inshore Fishermen Welfare Association observed that in areas where the mangrove forests were intact, there was reduced property damage and less impact on the cost.

Sandy beaches have been seriously damaged by the tsunami in some areas and sea turtle nesting sites have been destroyed. Coconuts are an integral part of the economy for many coastal communities and feature prominently in tsunami survival stories: people surviving by eating coconuts, people who survived by clinging on to coconut trees so as not to be washed away, and the Acehenese man who clung to a coconut palm and survived at sea for 9 days. Replanting coconuts to restore the sandy beach ecosystem will be an important part of the recovery process.

Direct Impacts

The direct impact of severe wave energy on shallow near shore habitats (include coral reef ecosystems, sea grasses and mangroves) could be extensive but also depends on the amount of wave energy these ecosystems are normally exposed to. Areas normally exposed to significant wave energy from large swells or tropical storms are less likely to be severely impacted. On the other hand, shallow bays typically protected from high wave wave action could have suffered more extensive damage.

Damage by wave energy is also species specific. Some species of coral, algae and other marine invertebrates are extremely delicate and cannot withstand turbulent high energy environments. As a result, these species would be particularly susceptible to the damaging wave energy generated by this tsunami.

Extensive damage to nearshore estuaries, mangrove and sea grass habitats – many of which could have been completely torn free of their roots-would aloes be expected. However, these habitats would be expected to recover over several months or years.

This powerful tsunami could have substantially altered some shallow water benthic habitats, reducing their effectiveness as nurseries and shelters for fish and benthic organisms-organisms living on, attached to or burrowing in the sediment of the ocean floor. As a result, some nearshore fisheries could be impacted by very low recruitment success over the next few years. Unfortunately, such impacts could ripple through the entire food chain for decades, however, they will not likely cause lasting impacts.

Indirect Impacts

A major indirect impact of the tsunami on nearshore marine ecosystems includes sedimentation from extreme runoff and the churning up of coastal silt, sand and organic matter. Some ecosystems could have been buried by sediments flushed in to shallow nearshore environments.

For areas normally exposed to high wave energy or strong currents, this sedimentation will probably be washed away over several weeks or months, depending on degree of sedimentation. In more protected areas (not typically exposed to significant wave energy or currents), it could take years or decades for the ecosystem to recover.

Other major indirect damage could have been caused by excessive amounts of debris, including buildings, vehicles (cars and buses), boats, refrigerators and / or any large, non-buoyant object that ended up in the shallow marine environment. When debris of this type is caught up in strong near shore waves and current, it can easily ‘bulldoze’ corals and other benthic substrates (i.e., ocean bottom).

Many of these items and other debris flushed out to sea could have contained hazardous chemicals, oils, paints, freons, cleansers etc., which could be deposited in and cause stress to near shore marine ecosystems. These stressors could cause disease in corals, algae, fish and other invertebrates. Because most benthic organisms are filter feeders, this group of organisms is likely to be most severely affected. Unfortunately, these impacts could be long-lived and not become apparent to researchers for months or even years.

Debris, such as lost fishing gear (e.g., lines, nets, traps, etc.) from sunken and damaged boats could entangle and / or drown protected species (marine mammals, turtles, etc.). Because fishing gear is often composed of plastic and / or other non-biodegradable materials, it can last in the marine environment for years or even decades. Metal objects deposited into the nearshore marine environment can also trigger blooms that often outcompete corals for benthic substrate.

Thus biotic communities, physical habitats and their heterogeneity, nutrient distribution and exploitable resources of these zones could be disturbed significantly. Future studies should focus on tsunami-disturbed changes in:

· Distribution, habitat and yield of exploitable resources like fishes, crustaceans and mollusks.

· Species richness and rates and sequences of recovery, in cases of species loss; primary productivity by phytoplankton.

· Species composition, distribution and abundance of the principle tax a of primary producers (dinoflagellates in BB).

· Tropic status of the regions in the ocean around AN.

· Species richness, community structure and standing crop of macro and micro fauna.

· Zooplankton biomass as estimate of secondary production in BB.

· Impact of sedimentation and mud shield on coral reef communities.

· Changes in nutrients of BB due to massive influx of organic and inorganic matter from coastal mainland.

· Deviations, if any, in unique hydrographic and oceanographic features of the disturbed zones.

· Species loss, changes in habitat heterogeneity and biotic interactions at inter-tidal zones of BB and AN and species recovery rates and sequence.

http://www.ias.ac.in/currsci/mar252006/772.pdf
http://dgukenvis.nic.in/Art8.htm
http://geology.com/records/biggest-tsunami.shtml
http://www.dakshin.org/DOWNLOADS/ECOLOGY%20REPORT.pdf
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12903072

Jaime says ...

1.       The majority of the devastation caused by the Sumatra and Tohoku (the region of Japan most seriously affected by the temblor) earthquakes was caused by the attendant tsunami, which in both instances was basically caused by the edge of the tectonic plate ‘pinging upwards’ as the stress was released. This pushes the water column above the thrust upwards, resulting in a wave.

The wave is so destructive because it has a high amplitude and long wavelength. It’s often barely noticeable in the open ocean as the amplitude of the wave is not as great as the depth of the water column. When the water gets shallower, though, the sea floor reflects the wave back earlier, so the energy has nowhere to go. The amplitude of the wave is deflected upwards, causing it to rear up. The long wavelength ensures that there are millions – possibly billions – of gallons of water pushed up behind the crest which all follows the wavefront inland. This is why it’s so destructive on coastal areas.

Unless whales happened to be close to shore, I don’t think they would suffer any ill-effects – a wave is actually a circular motion of the water, so they might be somewhat confused for a few seconds as they are pushed in a wide circle. As for other marine life, obviously coastal fish and other sea life close to shore would be pushed inland and come into contact with very dirty, muddy water, with implications for their survival. Coral and other sedentary organisms would have to cope with the sheer amount of energy in the wave as it pushed strongly in one direction for several minutes, and then deal with the sludge, and possibly pollutants, flowing in the other direction as the wave recedes

2.       Marine creatures in the deep ocean probably wouldn’t be largely affected by earthquakes, since not much in the way of tremors is felt at the source of a quake. Same with tsunamis; in the open ocean, tsunami waves are just a couple feet tall at most. They get large in shallow water.

  Marine creatures who are more likely to get affected by things like these are those living    in intertidal zones (whose habitats would be washed away by a tsunami) or if buildings or something fell into the water and damaged their habitat that way.

Kam says ...

ECOLOGICAL  IMPACTS  OF  THE  TSUNAMI  ON DOTILLA INTERMEDIA IN LAEMSON, THAILAND

There  have  been  several  studies  that  have  described  changes  to  the  topology  of beaches following the impact of the tsunami in. Distinct  changes  to  the  slope  of  beaches were also  reported  along  the Chennai  coast  in  India. The  ecological work undertaken in this thesis demonstrated that the location of the area inhabited by Dotilla  intermedia  has  a  very  close  relationship  to  the  gradient  of  the  beach. One direct  consequence  of  sediment  accumulation  or  removal  caused  by  the  tsunami would be to alter the beach gradient, and thus shift the position of the Dotilla zone on the shore.

In  addition  to  altering  the  topology  of  beaches,  the  tsunami  created  a  large change  in  the patterns of grain  size distribution on exposed beaches  throughout  the 162 Laem  Son.  There  was  a general  coarsening  of  sediment  resulting  from  the overturning of  the beaches by  the  tsunami wave, and  the  sediment on  the  tsunami-impacted beaches had yet to reach pre-tsunami conditions by April 2005. Changes in sediment grain size created by the tsunami would be expected to have a  large  impact on Dotilla  intermedia. Although sediment grain size was not found to be significant in controlling the zonation D. intermedia of on beaches within the Laem Son, it is hypothesised that sediment grain size dictates which beaches are available  for  habitation  by  D.  intermedia.  Sediment  of  a  particular  size  range  is necessary to sift through the mouthparts of the crabs when feeding .  However,  the  granulometric  analysis  of  sediments  was based on measuring the overall granulometry of a sediment volume, and did not focus on the thin surface layer processed by the crabs. Sections through the sediment showed strong patterns of layering consistent with considerable resuspension  and  settlement,  with  the  coarse  material  overlain  by  finer  material. Therefore the grain size of the surface sediment may not have been outside the size range required by D. intermedia to feed upon The coarsening of  the sediment may have had more  impact on  the ability of Dotilla  intermedia  to burrow  through  the sediment. There have been several studies 163 on effect of differing sediment types on the burrowing of the mud crab Helice crassa. The depth to which H. crassa burrows is related to the relative proportion of the silt-clay  fraction  in  the  sediment, with  the  crab  burrowing deeper in muddier sediments than sandier sediments. The tsunami-related coarsening  of  the  sediment may  have  resulted  in D.  intermedia  only  being  able  to construct shallower burrows, which in turn may have had important implications for the effectiveness of  the burrow as a  refuge  from desiccation and predation. However, considering  the  speed  at which  the  populations  of D.  intermedia recovered  to  their pre-tsunami numbers  in  the Laem Son,  it may be  that  there was little or no impact on the burrowing ability of the crabs. The changes in the sediment granulometry and beach topology created by the tsunami  would  slowly  begin  to  revert  to  pre-tsunami  conditions  over  time  by sediment movement caused by  tidal action. Sediment resuspension and resettlement would  slowly  move  coarse  particles  deeper  into  the  sediment,  whilst  sediment removal or accumulation would shape the slope of beaches. When compared to other large-scale  marine  disturbances  such  as  tropical  storms  and  cyclones,  tsunami-generated disturbance can be seen  to have a similar  level of  impact.  In both storms and  tsunamis,  the majority of disturbance on  the near-shore marine environment  is physically derived from wave action. Along the Andaman coast of Thailand most of these  storm events occur  in  the winter months, with a peak  in November, meaning that the 2004 tsunami occurred during a period when large scale disturbances would be predicted. As a  result of  the historical precedence of winter storms,  the exposed shore fauna that occupy the Andaman coast would be expected to have evolutionary adaptations to overcome disturbance during this time period, so the overall impact of the  tsunami may  have  been moderated  by  virtue  of  its  timing.  Bearing  this  in  mind,  it  is  perhaps  not  surprising  that  the  populations  of Dotilla  intermedia were  able  to  recover  relatively  quickly  after  the  impact  of  the tsunami.

Gita says ...

Post 1:

Welcome to our blog!

Sorry for the lack of posts in the last few days but we have had some technical difficulties. Fortunately, that is all sorted out and hopefully we can catch up on our blogging now. So, let’s back track a bit to where we started and how we came up with our topic of research.

Living on the west coast, the marine scientists and biologists in our group brought to our attention the intertidal marine animals that they have been studying. The interesting aspect of the intertidal marine animals, especially with respect to the earthquake in Japan and the consequential radioactivity situation, is that they are able to survive in water and on land since they live on the part of the sea floor that is sometimes exposed and sometimes submerged due to the tides. We knew that an investigation on both the effects of the radioactivity and the earthquake itself would be too much information to compile in such a short period of time. We also realized that due to the recent nature of this topic, the Japan earthquake, that occurred on March 11, 2011, we would not have access to the information about the effects of this disaster on the intertidal marine animals. Therefore, we would have to predict the effects by looking at past examples and compiling information.

Hence we arrived at our topic of investigation: “To predict the effects of the tsunami/earthquake on intertidal marine organisms through the investigation of past tsunamis.

We will be doing research using past examples of earthquakes that affects the coastlines and through this compile information to make a coherent prediction of some of the effects on the Japan earthquake on the intertidal marine organisms.

More to come soon!

Post 2:

A very important part of the intertidal zone is the alga that grows there. Algae in general are a large, diverse, simple group of unicellular to multicellular organisms that are photosynthetic. During an earthquake, waves can be produced which can clear the shelf upon which the algae spawn. Not only is this hindering the reproduction of the algae, but in addition, there are organisms that rely on the algae spawn to feed off of. For example, in the 1978 Mexico Earthquake, the pupfish were greatly affected by the clearing of the shelf on which the algae spawn due to the lack of food for them. However, the waves that clear the spawning shelf can also be beneficial. When the waves come, they also clear off the silt and other fine particles that are compiling on the shelf. Depending on the time of the year, the algae, due to the extra space, and other factors at that time, may in fact regenerate relatively quickly.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algae

Let's get it done!

Here we are: 

Gugu, Gita, Jaime and Kam. 

It is true that this is our first official journal entry in this new blog, but it is because we had some technical problems. We used to have a blog before, but for weird and unknown reason (we forgot the password) we don't have it anymore. In our first blog we focus primarly to the effect that the radiation might have in the marine intertidal organism, but we also realized that come out with data and find information about these first research question was too challenging. So, now, with this new blog, we also find our definitive topic: 

The future of Japan's intertidal marine organism! 

We will be analyzing the effect of the earthquake/tsunami on the intertidal animal, and taking into consideration the earthquake/tsunami in Indonesia in 2004 and the effect that it had on the marine intertidal organism, we hope we will be able to come out with a prediction for an estimated period up to three years from now.